chapter one

1 The World of Subscriptions and Churn

 

What is churn? Why do we fight it? And how can data help? In short, why are you reading this book?  If you are reading this book you are probably :

  • Filling the role of a data analyst, data scientist or machine learning engineer
  • Working for an organization that offers a product or service with repeat customers, or users

Or, you may be studying and preparing to take on such a role in the future.

Such services are often sold by subscription but your organization does not need to sell subscriptions in order to take advantage of this book!  All you need is repeat customers or users and a desire to keep them coming back.  Although this book teaches a lot of techniques based on subscriptions, I will show how the exact same concepts apply to retail and other non-subscription scenarios.

Because you don’t need to have a degree in data science or a fancy title to take advantage of this book we will refer to you, the reader, as a “data person” (or data people) :  whatever else is true, you must have an interest and skill with data or this is the wrong book for you.  If you already work with an organization that offers a live service you probably know all about churn and want to get on with the fight, but for those who are just starting out I start out with some context to bring everyone up to speed.

1.1   Why You are Reading this book

1.1.1   Terminology for Customers

1.1.2   The Typical Churn Scenario

1.1.3   What this book is about (How it works)

1.2   Why Churn is Hard to Fight

1.2.1   Predicting Churn is Hard

1.2.2   Preventing Churn is Harder

1.2.3   Preventing Churn is The Job of “The Business”

1.2.4   The Role of Data in Supporting the Business

1.3   Products with Recurring User Interactions

1.3.1   Paid Consumer Products

1.3.2   Business to Business Services

1.3.3   Ad Supported Media and Apps

1.3.4   Consumer Feed Subscriptions

1.3.5   Freemium Business Models

1.3.6   In-App Purchase Models

1.4   Non-Subscription Churn Scenarios

1.4.1   Inactivity as Churn

1.4.2   Free Trial Conversion

1.4.3   Upsell/Downsell