chapter twelve

12 Augmenting investment decisions: LLM-guided portfolio allocation

 

This chapter covers

  • Integrating quantitative momentum signals
  • Designing prompts with bounded discretion
  • Simulating with point-in-time information
  • Comparing simulations with live trading
  • Keeping human judgment in final decisions

In chapter 10, we built a quantitative engine that processes the market’s numerical signals: price movements, momentum, and cross-asset correlations. In chapter 11, we constructed a qualitative engine that extracts signals from text: news sentiment, policy tone, and emerging risks. Each engine captures different information. The quantitative engine detects statistical patterns but can’t explain the drivers behind price movements. The qualitative engine interprets narratives but lacks systematic numerical rigor.

This chapter combines these approaches into a decision-support workflow, but not by simply merging two signal streams. Instead, we elevate the role of the large language model's (LLM). In chapter 11, the LLM acted as a signal extractor, reading text and outputting scores. Here, the LLM becomes a decision advisor: an agent that receives structured inputs, reasons within explicit constraints, and produces actionable recommendations for human review. This architectural shift from extraction to interpretation lays the groundwork for the fully agentic workflows we’ll explore in chapter 14.

12.1 The synthesis challenge: From separate engines to unified decisions

12.1.1 The information asymmetry problem

12.1.2 The synthesis workflow in our four-layer framework

12.1.3 The role of macroeconomic indicators

12.1.4 News sentiment vs. structured macro data

12.2 Setting up the simulation infrastructure

12.2.1 Defining the portfolio universe

12.2.2 Timing assumptions

12.3 Designing the system prompt

12.3.1 Bounded discretion under constraints

12.3.2 No date information

12.3.3 Output structure

12.4 Quantitative signal generation

12.5 The LLM portfolio advisor

12.6 Running the historical simulation

12.6.1 What this simulation does and doesn’t show

12.6.2 Path dependence, not learning

12.7 Results and interpretation