chapter five

5 Sample size superpowers

 

In this chapter

  • The central limit theorem in depth
  • Practical applications of the theorem, such as confidence intervals for means and proportions
  • Estimating a population mean or proportion from a sample with a range of values using confidence intervals
  • Handling smaller sample sizes using the t-distribution

In statistics, we rarely have access to a whole population, which is why we resort to sampling to estimate its characteristics. With a sample, we try to infer attributes of the larger population, assuming that the sample is representative. But a good statistician more often responds with uncertainty than with absolute certainty, embracing tools that allow for a range of values rather than a single one. Confidence intervals provide that range, giving us a way to express both our estimate and the uncertainty around it.

After studying the central limit theorem (CLT) in the last chapter, you might see where this is going. With a sample, we expect the mean to fall approximately within a normal distribution of sample means. Because it is part of a normal distribution, we can capture ranges using the bell curve.

Applying the central limit theorem

Confidence intervals with means

Critical Z-values

CIs with larger samples

Smaller samples with t-distribution

CLT and CI for proportions

CLT for proportions

CIs for proportions

Summary