chapter five

5. Probability Distributions for Machine Learning and Data Science

 

Life often requires us to estimate the chances of occurrence of some event or to make a decision in the face of uncertainty. Probability and statistics is the common box of tools to use under these circumstances. In this chapter we will study this from a machine learning point of view. As usual, we will emphasize on the geometrical view of multivariate statistics. This chapter is strongly connected to the previous chapter 4. The reader is encouraged to read these two chapters in a back and forth fashion.

In machine learning, we take large feature vectors as inputs. and ascribe them to one or more of pre-defined classes. Such a machine is called a classifier.

As stated earlier, we can view the feature vectors as points in a high dimensional space. Now suppose, with each point in the input space we associate the probabilities of belonging to each of the possible classes. Then, given any input we will simply pick the class with the highest probability. In effect, we have a classifier. Thus, we are modelling the probability distributions of the classes over input space.

5.1 Probability - the classical frequentist view

5.1.1 Random Variables

5.1.2 Population Histograms

5.2 Probability Distributions

5.3 Impossible and certain events, Sum of probabilities of exhaustive, mutually exclusive events, Independent events

5.3.1 Probabilities of Impossible and Certain Events

5.3.2 Exhaustive and mutually exclusive events

5.3.3 Independent Events

5.4 Joint Probabilities and their distributions

5.4.1 Marginal Probabilities

5.4.2 Dependent Events and their Joint Probability Distribution

5.5 Geometrical View: Sample point distributions for dependent and independent variables

5.5.1 Python Numpy code to draw random samples from a discrete joint probability distribution

5.6 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Density

5.7 Properties of distributions - Expected Value, Variance and Covariance

5.7.1 Expected Value aka Mean

5.7.2 Variance, Covariance, Standard Deviation

5.8 Sampling from a Distribution

5.9 Some famous probability distributions

5.9.1 Uniform Random Distributions

5.9.2 Gaussian (aka Normal) Distribution

5.9.3 Binomial Distribution

5.9.4 Multinomial Distribution

5.9.5 Bernoulli Distribution

Chapter Summary