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Broken scaling law

As explained in Sutskever's List

A scaling relationship represented by multiple regimes with distinct segments and transitions rather than one universal curve.

A scaling law describes training loss as parameters, data, and compute increase within a particular regime. When data runs out or the tokenizer, optimizer, or governing rule changes, the relationship can shift. On a log–log plot, the result is a series of straight segments joined by kinks, not one universal curve. section 6.2.1

These regime changes help explain why capabilities can seem to emerge suddenly: evaluations often use thresholds, so a small, smooth improvement in loss can turn many nearly correct answers into correct ones. Benchmarks such as MMLU, GSM8K, and BIG-bench can show steps or plateaus even when training loss changes smoothly. Curves help indicate where to spend compute; evaluations reveal which measured capabilities have changed. section 6.2.1

How Sutskever's List covers it

How deep it goes
Describes regime-specific log–log segments, kinks, and possible causes, then connects transitions to benchmark performance.
Examples
Uses data limits and tokenizer or optimizer changes as regime shifts, and names MMLU, GSM8K, and BIG-bench as evaluations.
What you can do after
Understand why smooth training-loss improvements can coincide with abrupt changes in thresholded evaluation scores.
How it connects
Connects scaling laws and training loss to compute allocation, evaluation thresholds, benchmarks, and emergent capabilities.

Related concepts

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Sutskever's List. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.