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Disproportionate accuracy

As explained in Effective Data Analysis

Disproportionate accuracy is unequal predictive accuracy across subgroups affected by an automated system.

Disproportionate accuracy means that an automated system predicts more accurately for some subgroups than for others. Unequal accuracy can make service quality uneven even when the system improves efficiency overall. section 8.2.2

A support-ticket classifier may be less accurate for new customers and non-English-speaking customers, reducing the quality of service they receive. Similar disparities become higher stakes when automation ranks job candidates or predicts qualification and interview outcomes. section 8.2.2 section 8.2.2

Responsible interpretation requires recognizing that:

  • Efficiency gains do not guarantee equal benefits for customers or candidates. section 8.2.2
  • Rules-based systems and machine learning models can both produce subgroup-specific inaccuracies. section 8.2.2
  • Inaccurate predictions can reinforce bias and affect income, careers, and other long-term outcomes. section 8.2.2
Figure 8.5 The categorization system developed by the data science and analytics team can streamline the work of the customer support team. Still, it may have an unanticipated negative effect on certain groups of customers.
figure

Use the figure to connect streamlined support work with its possible negative effects on particular customer groups. section 8.2.2

How Effective Data Analysis covers it

How deep it goes
Defines unequal subgroup accuracy and illustrates consequences, but stops short of specifying measurement methods or fairness thresholds.
Examples
Uses support-ticket classification and job-candidate ranking to show unequal accuracy across customer, language, and candidate groups.
What you can do after
Evaluate automated predictions for subgroup accuracy differences and possible effects on service quality or high-stakes outcomes.
How it connects
Connects automated systems with bias, disproportionate outcomes, machine learning, rules-based systems, and high-stakes decisions.

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Effective Data Analysis. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.