Explaining a black-box prediction requires balancing two goals: matching the model accurately and keeping the explanation simple enough to understand. Surrogate models make this tension explicit by approximating black-box behavior while remaining interpretable. section 9.4.1 section 9.6
The tradeoff appears operationally in surrogate-model design:
- Decision-tree surrogates measure fidelity with the R2 score and interpretability through tree size, where fewer leaf nodes generally improve interpretability. section 9.4.1
- LIME generates perturbed examples near the instance being explained, weights them by distance, and fits a linear surrogate using weighted mean squared error. section 9.4.1
- Linear surrogates become less interpretable as they use more features, so selecting a compact representation limits complexity while preserving local fidelity. section 9.4.1
Local explanation for an XGBoost prediction
LIME can explain an XGBoost prediction by constructing a local surrogate dataset, accounting for categorical features, and fitting a linear explanation around one test instance. For test example 3104, negative feature contributions appear to the left of zero and positive contributions to the right.
