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Resulting bias

As explained in Collaborative Software Design: How to facilitate domain modeling decisions

The tendency to judge the quality of a decision primarily by the quality of its eventual outcome.

Resulting is the tendency to equate a decision’s quality with its eventual outcome. A bad result does not necessarily prove that the original decision was bad, just as a good result does not prove the decision was sound. section 9.1.2 section 9.7

Monolith or microservices?

A team chooses a monolithic architecture, then finds two years later that it has become a big ball of mud. Calling the decision bad solely because of that outcome is resulting. The original evaluation should instead consider the context, available information, alternatives, and uncertainty at the time. Hindsight bias can make the outcome seem more predictable than it was; microservices might also have produced a distributed ball of mud. section 9.1.2 section 9.7

Reduce resulting when reviewing a decision by:

  • Separate the quality of the decision from the quality of its outcome. section 9.1.2
  • Document the alternatives, analysis, context, and reasoning rather than only the selected option. section 9.1.2
  • Find one personal or professional example involving a bad outcome and another involving a good outcome. section 9.1.2

How Collaborative Software Design: How to facilitate domain modeling decisions covers it

How deep it goes
Defines the bias, contrasts it with hindsight bias, and recommends documenting context and analysis; it defers detailed evaluation procedures.
Examples
Uses monolithic and microservices architecture, big-ball-of-mud outcomes, and paired personal or professional reflection exercises.
What you can do after
Evaluate decisions using their original context and analysis rather than judging them solely by outcomes.
How it connects
Connects resulting with decision quality, outcome quality, hindsight bias, alternatives, information, and contextual analysis.

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Collaborative Software Design: How to facilitate domain modeling decisions. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.