A stock management system turns demand forecasts into inventory decisions, balancing service levels against the costs of overstock, expired goods, and missed sales. section 5.3.1 section 9.4.1
Practical design and evaluation choices include:
- Use quantile forecasts when the target is a service level such as 95%, then assess forecast quality through stock position and out-of-stocks. section 5.3.1
- Weight errors by SKU price or apply asymmetric penalties when underforecasting is more damaging than overforecasting. section 5.3.1 section 9.4.1
- Choose data granularity deliberately: moving from day-store-item to week-store-item can reduce computation while preserving or improving performance. section 9.4.1
- Review residual bias and spread; slight, controlled overprediction is preferable to underprediction, while excessive overprediction remains harmful. section 9.4.1
Choosing the forecasting grain
A retailer deciding between daily and weekly demand records should involve product managers, category managers, users, and stakeholders, because granularity changes service speed, performance, and the system’s possible use cases. section 9.4.1
