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Certainty equivalent value

As explained in Build a Robo-Advisor with Python (From Scratch)

A certainty equivalent is the guaranteed amount that provides the same utility as a specified risky prospect.

A certainty equivalent value is the guaranteed amount that provides the same utility as a specified risky prospect. It translates an abstract utility difference into dollars, making risk-adjusted financial choices easier to compare. section 6.3.1 section 6.4

The result depends on the utility function and its curvature. Concave utility represents risk aversion: as wealth rises, each additional dollar contributes less utility. The CRRA power utility function uses η to represent relative risk aversion; η = 0 is risk-neutral, while larger η indicates greater risk aversion. section 6.3.1

A coin-flip prize

Consider a coin flip paying $10 million for a correct guess and nothing otherwise. With the utility function illustrated for the example, the certainty equivalent is $2.5 million: the person is indifferent between that guaranteed amount and the risky prize. section 6.3.1

Delaying Social Security

For a 62-year-old choosing between claiming Social Security at 62 or waiting until 70, increase starting wealth under the earlier-claiming strategy until its utility matches the later-claiming strategy. With CRRA η = 3, the equivalent amount is $35,000, exceeding a year of Social Security payments. section 6.4

Figure 6.6 Certainty equivalent value of a coin flip
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Visualizes the certainty equivalent of the coin-flip prospect. section 6.3.1

Figure 6.7 Quantifying the benefit of claiming Social Security at 70 vs. 62
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Visualizes how risk aversion changes the dollar value of delaying Social Security. section 6.4

How Build a Robo-Advisor with Python (From Scratch) covers it

How deep it goes
Defines the concept, works a coin-flip example, and applies wealth matching to Social Security while deferring detailed assumption analysis.
Examples
Uses a $10 million coin flip and a Social Security claim-at-62-versus-70 comparison.
What it assumes
Assumes utility functions and risk preferences, while introducing concavity, diminishing marginal utility, and CRRA from basic examples.
What you can do after
Evaluate/understand risky choices by expressing utility-equivalent differences as guaranteed dollar amounts.
How it connects
Connects utility functions, diminishing marginal utility, risk aversion, CRRA, longevity risk, and Social Security claiming.

Related concepts

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Build a Robo-Advisor with Python (From Scratch). The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.