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Probabilistic judgment

As explained in AI-Powered Search

A probabilistic judgment is a relevance assessment represented as a probability that a user considers a result relevant.

A probabilistic judgment represents a search result’s relevance as a probability from 0.0 to 1.0: the estimated chance that a random user considers it relevant. Click models use this form because clicks are noisy, users differ, and search interactions contain bias. section 11.1.1

Movie relevance estimates

For the query “star wars,” Star Wars can receive 0.99, Return of the Jedi 0.80, Star Trek Into Darkness 0.20, and The Star 0.01. These values preserve degrees of relevance instead of forcing every result into relevant or irrelevant. section 11.1.1

Listing 11.2 Labeling movie query relevance probabilistically
# Judgment(grade, keywords, doc_id),
sample_judgments = [
  Judgment(0.99, "social network", 37799),  # The Social Network
  Judgment(0.01, "social network", 267752), # #chicagoGirl
  Judgment(0.01, "social network", 38408),  # Life As We Know It
  Judgment(0.01, "social network", 28303),  # The Cheyenne Social Club
  Judgment(0.99, "star wars", 11),          # Star Wars
  Judgment(0.80, "star wars", 1892),        # Return of the Jedi
  Judgment(0.20, "star wars", 54138),       # Star Trek Into Darkness
  Judgment(0.01, "star wars", 85783),       # The Star
  Judgment(0.20, "star wars", 325553)       # Battlestar Galactica
]

Inspect a concrete movie-query judgment set with floating-point relevance grades. section 11.1.1

Learning-to-rank systems can use these judgments in several ways: quantize probabilities into discrete labels, pass floating-point grades directly, or preserve only pairwise ordering. For example, 0.80 outranks 0.20, so the model can learn from their feature difference. section 11.1.2

How AI-Powered Search covers it

How deep it goes
Explains probability values, noise, bias, examples, and three training treatments without detailing click-model internals.
Examples
Uses movie queries such as “star wars,” with graded results including Star Wars, Return of the Jedi, and The Star.
What it assumes
Assumes familiarity with binary relevance judgments and learning-to-rank feature comparisons.
What you can do after
Apply probabilistic labels by quantizing them, using floating-point grades, or deriving pairwise training examples.
How it connects
Connects click models with relevance judgments and learning to rank.

Related concepts

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of AI-Powered Search. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.