Demand planning excellence combines efficacy—forecasts that improve supply-chain decisions—with efficiency—the least necessary time spent producing and reviewing them. section 1.2
Build the planning process around five questions:
- Objective: What decisions will the forecast support, and at what aggregation level and horizon? section 1.2 section 17.0
- Data: Does the process capture demand rather than merely recorded sales, including relevant demand drivers? section 17.0
- Metrics: Do accuracy, bias, value weighting, and benchmark comparisons measure useful forecasting performance? section 17.0
- Baseline model: Can an automated forecasting engine generate a reliable starting forecast? section 1.2 section 17.0
- Review: Can human judgment add relevant information without creating unnecessary manual work? section 1.2 section 16.1
Use judgment when major market changes, new products, limited history, or changing customer behavior escape the model; repair recurring model failures instead of editing forecasts repeatedly. section 16.1
When manual review earns its place
A model may miss a massive market change next month, making review sensible. By contrast, a trend or seasonality it should already detect points toward improving the model, not correcting every product manually. section 16.1
Figure 1.2 5-step framework for demand planning excellence
Use the five-step framework as a visual checklist for organizing a forecasting improvement project. section 1.2
