A black swan challenges the model “all swans are white”: it is an awkward misfit, while a model allowing black or white swans makes it typical. Algorithmic statistics studies how to separate structure from noise in an individual dataset by pairing a simple model with data that is typical under it. section 8.2.1
Kolmogorov complexity measures simplicity through the length of a description. Randomness deficiency measures typicality: low deficiency means the data fits what the model would normally produce; high deficiency signals a misfit. Together, these measures make the idea of a concise, unsurprising scientific explanation more precise. section 8.2.1 section 8.2.1
