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Maximum likelihood estimation

As explained in Statistics Slam Dunk

Maximum likelihood estimation is a parameter-estimation method that selects values maximizing the likelihood of the observed data under a model.

Maximum likelihood estimation supports logistic regression by producing probabilities between 0 and 1 for binary outcomes. It expresses those probabilities through log odds: log[p(X)/(1 − p(X))] = B0 + B1X1. section 14.6.2

A practical modeling workflow uses maximum likelihood estimation to:

  • Fit a binary playoff model with base R glm(), using family = "binomial". section 14.6.2

Predicting postseason qualification

A logistic model predicts whether an NBA team qualifies for the postseason from z_o_pts. The fitted model achieves McFadden pseudo-R2 of 0.31, sensitivity of 0.80, specificity of 0.63, and accuracy of 0.7375.

How Statistics Slam Dunk covers it

How deep it goes
Defines the logit equation and demonstrates glm() fitting, then defers broader model-result evaluation.
Examples
Demonstrates playoff prediction from z_o_pts and compares it with a model using z_pts.
What it assumes
Assumes a binary target and predictor variable, while explaining why ordinary linear regression cannot safely model probabilities.
What you can do after
Apply it via base R glm() to fit binary models and evaluate thresholded playoff predictions.
How it connects
Connects logistic regression with generalized linear models, binary classification, linear regression, and log odds.

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Related concepts

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Statistics Slam Dunk. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.