A one number forecast gives stakeholders across a supply chain one shared demand forecast for coordinating decisions. The goal is to connect actions such as marketing launches, inventory positioning, production, and logistics. section 7.0
Different information needs can be served by mechanically aligning forecasts through top-down, middle-out, or bottom-up approaches. This creates clarity, but a single forecast may not suit every material, time horizon, or business process. section 7.2
A one number forecast creates several practical trade-offs:
- Efficiency suffers when teams repeatedly align thousands of SKU forecasts across many future periods. section 7.2
- Optimality suffers because the best model at one material or temporal granularity may not be best at another. section 7.2
- Alignment is not guaranteed: teams may agree on a shared number while continuing separate internal forecasting work. section 7.2
Different decisions, different useful forecasts
A manufacturer may need a long-term monthly forecast by raw material for production and supply, while logistics needs a daily distributor forecast incorporating promotions and shortages. Both forecasts can support their processes even when their numbers differ slightly. section 7.2
One number mindset offers an alternative: align stakeholders on shared assumptions, data, and demand drivers rather than forcing every team to use identical SKU forecasts. Teams can retain appropriate processes and granularity while sharing reconciled demand, pricing, master data, and information about events. Forecasts should remain accessible and significant deviations should be investigated. section 7.4
