The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) compares a stock’s market price with its earnings per share. It measures valuation using the most recent earnings. section 3.1.3
P/E can help adjust historical stock returns when valuation changes distort comparisons across periods. A rising valuation ratio can contribute to returns that historical averages may not represent sustainably. section 3.1.3
Distinguish the standard ratio from its cyclically adjusted variant:
- Standard P/E uses the most recent earnings. section 3.1.3
- The CAPE ratio averages earnings over the prior 10 years and adjusts them for inflation, smoothing business-cycle fluctuations. section 3.1.3
- Other valuation measures include the book-to-market ratio. section 3.1.3
Adjusting stock-return estimates
A historical-return analysis uses annual VFINX returns and CAPE data, computes percentage changes in CAPE, and regresses excess stock returns on those changes. section 3.1.3

