Bayesian inference updates a hypothesis’s probability by combining its prior plausibility with how well it explains observed data. In inductive inference, this turns candidate explanations into probabilities, while making the choice of prior an important and contested question. section 9.1.2
Predicting coin flips
For an unknown coin-flip process, consider hypotheses such as a fair coin, a biased coin, or a fixed repeating pattern. As flips arrive, update each hypothesis according to how well it fits the observations. section 9.1.2







