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Bayesian statistics

As explained in Sutskever's List

Bayes' rule updates the probability of a hypothesis from its prior probability and the likelihood of observed data under that hypothesis.

Bayesian inference updates a hypothesis’s probability by combining its prior plausibility with how well it explains observed data. In inductive inference, this turns candidate explanations into probabilities, while making the choice of prior an important and contested question. section 9.1.2

Predicting coin flips

For an unknown coin-flip process, consider hypotheses such as a fair coin, a biased coin, or a fixed repeating pattern. As flips arrive, update each hypothesis according to how well it fits the observations. section 9.1.2

How Sutskever's List covers it

How deep it goes
Defines priors, likelihoods, and posteriors, notes prior controversy, and stops short of a formal derivation.
Examples
Uses a stream of coin flips to contrast fair, biased, and fixed-pattern hypotheses.
What you can do after
Evaluate competing hypotheses by reweighting prior plausibility according to fit with observed data.
How it connects
Connects Bayesian updating to induction, Occam’s razor, universal priors, and binary sequence prediction.

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This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Sutskever's List. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.