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Feature engineering

As explained in Demand Forecasting Best Practices

Feature engineering is the selection, creation, or modification of input features for a machine learning model.

Feature engineering selects, creates, or tweaks the data features supplied to a machine-learning model. For demand forecasting, business knowledge helps identify information the model would otherwise miss, such as whether a product will be on sale during Black Friday. section 15.1.1

Begin with the decision question: if forecasting next month’s demand, what would you ask or check? Brainstorm with people who understand pricing, promotions, inventory, and demand before collecting the required data. section 15.1.1

Useful brainstorming prompts include:

  • What is the current price, and has it changed recently? section 15.1.1
  • What is the product’s average monthly demand? section 15.1.1
  • Was the product recently out of stock, or is a promotion running? section 15.1.1
Table 15.2 Typical Inputs (or Data Features) for a Machine-Learning Model (view table figure)

Inputs

Outputs

Brand

Demand

Price

Promotion

Demand

Q–4

Q–3

Q–2

Q–1

Average

Q+1

Q+1

Q+1

Low cost

1,500

500

400

300

10

10

  

200

Premium

500

1,000

750

500

35

30

–15%

700

Regular

250

350

150

400

20

20

–20%

300

Low cost

100

110

120

150

8

9

  

120

Low cost

50

30

80

10

5

5

  

30

Regular

200

250

220

240

15

14

–10%

260

Compare typical model inputs—including brand, price, promotion, and historical demand—with predicted demand. section 15.1.1

How Demand Forecasting Best Practices covers it

How deep it goes
Defines selection, creation, and modification, then gives brainstorming prompts but defers model-parameter tuning.
Examples
Uses Black Friday sale status, price changes, average demand, promotions, stockouts, and a typical-inputs table.
What it assumes
Uses business experience to identify meaningful information while leaving model-parameter tuning to data-science expertise.
What you can do after
Apply it by collaboratively brainstorming and collecting business-relevant features for a demand forecast.
How it connects
Connects machine learning models with demand forecasting, pricing, promotions, inventory, and stockouts.

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This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Demand Forecasting Best Practices. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.