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False-positive rate

As explained in Statistics Every Programmer Needs

The false positive rate is the proportion of actual negative instances that a classifier incorrectly identifies as positive.

The false-positive rate (FPR) measures how often a classifier labels actual negative instances as positive. It is the share of false positives among all actual negatives. section 5.2.4

Compute and interpret the metric from the confusion matrix:

  • Formula: FPR = FP / (FP + TN), multiplied by 100 for a percentage. section 5.2.4
  • Recognize FPR as the inverse of the true negative rate, or specificity. section 5.2.4
  • Compare FPR with the false-negative rate because the relative cost of false alarms and missed positives depends on the application. section 5.2.4

Raisin classification

A logistic regression produces 53 false positives and 397 true negatives for the negative class. FPR = 53 / (53 + 397) × 100 = 11.78%, meaning the model incorrectly flags fewer than 12% of actual negatives as positive. section 5.2.4

Table 5.1 Confusion matrix for raisin classification. A confusion matrix stores classification metrics from a regression with actual and predicted binary outcomes.
Predicted
Kecimen (0)
Besni (1)
Actual
Kecimen (0)
tn
fp
Besni (1)
fn
tp

Use the confusion matrix to locate FP and TN before calculating the denominator of the false-positive rate. section 5.2.4

How Statistics Every Programmer Needs covers it

How deep it goes
Defines the formula, computes it from confusion counts, and relates it to specificity and application-dependent error costs.
Examples
Uses raisin classification counts of 53 false positives and 397 true negatives to obtain an 11.78% rate.
What it assumes
Assumes binary actual and predicted outcomes, while locating false positives and true negatives in a confusion matrix.
What you can do after
Diagnose model behavior by calculating the percentage of actual negatives incorrectly classified as positive.
How it connects
Connects false-positive rate to confusion matrices, true negative rate, false-negative rate, logistic regression, and ROC curves.

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This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Statistics Every Programmer Needs. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.