Groupthink

As explained in Demand Forecasting Best Practices

Groupthink is a pattern of group decision-making in which the desire for harmony and conformity suppresses independent evaluation and dissent.

Groupthink occurs when the desire for harmony and consensus suppresses independent judgment. In demand forecasting, it can amplify other biases and weaken the final forecast. section 16.3.1 section 16.4

Reduce groupthink during collaborative forecasting by:

• Gathering people with different backgrounds, mindsets, and quantitative or qualitative perspectives. section 16.3.1
• Having each participant develop a forecast independently before sharing it with the group. section 16.3.1
• Removing social, hierarchical, political, and peer pressure so dissenting predictions feel safe. section 16.3.1
• Discussing assumptions and demand drivers rather than immediately debating final numbers. section 16.4
• Using anonymous predictions when meetings still create excessive influence or conformity. section 16.3.1

An independent S&OP forecast

Before a critical S&OP meeting, participants privately record the sales numbers they expect. The group then compares the underlying assumptions, rather than allowing an early opinion or hierarchy to anchor everyone else. section 16.3.1 section 16.4

Figure 16.6 Groupthink illustrated by Jono Hey on his website sketchplanations.com

Use the illustration to recognize how conformity can displace independent judgment in group forecasting. section 16.3.1

How Demand Forecasting Best Practices covers it

How deep it goes

Explains conformity, pressure, and anchoring, then gives procedural safeguards; it stops short of formal psychological analysis.

Examples

Uses independent sales forecasts, anonymous S&OP predictions, diverse teams, and assumption-based demand discussions.

What it assumes

Assumes participation in collaborative demand forecasting and familiarity with forecast discussions.

What you can do after

Practice/perform independent forecasting before group discussion and challenge consensus through explicit assumptions.

How it connects

Connects judgmental forecasting with wisdom of the crowds, anchoring bias, demand planning, and S&OP.

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Related concepts

• sense-making taskaddressed by · A sense-making task is a structured activity that interprets and synthesizes complex information to develop understanding or establish shared meaning.
• social rankproduced by · Social rank is a person's perceived or institutionally recognized status within a group hierarchy, whether formally expressed or informally granted.
• code reviewaddressed by · Code review is the systematic examination of source code or proposed changes to identify problems and assess or improve quality.
• independence of work and judgmentaddressed by · Independence of work and judgment is the practice of having contributors form assessments separately before group influence occurs.
• cognitive biaskind of · A cognitive bias is a systematic tendency in human perception, judgment, or reasoning that can distort how information is evaluated and decisions are made.

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Demand Forecasting Best Practices. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.