Cognitive bias
A cognitive bias is a systematic tendency in human perception, judgment, or reasoning that can distort how information is evaluated and decisions are made.
Collaborative Software Design: How to facilitate domain modeling decisions
A cognitive bias is a systematic tendency in human judgment or reasoning that can distort perception and decision-making.
- How it is used
- Guides facilitators in recognizing and managing judgment patterns during collaborative modeling and software design decisions.
- How deep it goes
- Defines bias as systematic mental shortcuts, then demonstrates anchoring, group effects, visualization, and optional nudges.
- Examples
- Uses driving decisions, pivotal-event selection, subgroup Example Mapping, and a cinema-seating template to expose bias.
- What you can do after
- Apply it by observing bias, visualizing discussion, and offering optional nudges that help groups reconsider decisions.
Demand Forecasting Best Practices
A cognitive bias is a systematic deviation in judgment caused by mental shortcuts, assumptions, or other distortions in human reasoning.
- How it is used
- Improves judgmental demand forecasting by identifying distortions in forecast reviews and adjustments.
- How deep it goes
- Defines several biases and gives forecasting examples, then details process safeguards rather than psychological mechanisms.
- Examples
- Uses a wheel-of-fortune estimate, a 20% sales claim, product-launch optimism, and positive versus negative forecast adjustments.
- What you can do after
- Diagnose/debug with it by spotting biased adjustments and structuring independent, assumption-based forecast reviews.
Read how Demand Forecasting Best Practices explains cognitive bias →
Cyber Threat Hunting
A systematic pattern in which human judgment or perception deviates from rational evaluation because of mental shortcuts, experiences, or preferences.
- How it is used
- Guides threat hunters in designing and conducting hunts without letting experience or preferences distort hypothesis testing.
- How deep it goes
- Defines four biases and demonstrates confirmation-bias mitigation through an osquery pivot, but does not provide a broader debiasing framework.
- Examples
- Uses Dropbox connections, process listings, encoded PowerShell, command decoding, and genuine-file hash comparison as investigation artifacts.
- What you can do after
- Diagnose/debug with osquery by challenging initial hypotheses, pivoting from process names to sockets, and examining contradictory evidence.
Related concepts
- anchoring biasincludes · Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias in which an initial piece of information or reference point disproportionately influences subsequent judgments or estimates.
- dunning-kruger effectincludes · The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a domain overestimate their knowledge or ability.
- functional fixednessincludes · Functional fixedness is a cognitive bias that limits perception of an object, method, or situation to its familiar functions or uses.
- confirmation biasincludes · Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, favor, interpret, or recall information that supports existing beliefs or expectations while discounting conflicting evidence.
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