Confirmation bias is the tendency to gather information that supports a desired conclusion while dismissing evidence that challenges it. It can steer research, data selection, and interpretation toward a preferred story. section 9.7 section 1.4
The UFO video
After seeing strange lights and black SUVs near a state park, a UFO enthusiast treats the scene as evidence of a government cover-up. When a neighbor suggests that a movie crew caused the lights, he dismisses the message as hearsay and uploads the preferred explanation anyway. The alternative explanation was available, but an existing belief and personal investment made it easy to reject. section 9.7
Reduce confirmation bias by changing how you investigate:
- Notice when you are selecting only supportive information, then stop and question the selection. section 9.7
- Actively allow alternative explanations, including explanations that are inconvenient or not self-serving. section 9.7
- Look for contrary findings instead of cherry-picking results after repeatedly observing or modeling the data. section 9.16
- Watch for organizational incentives that publish favorable studies while burying unfavorable ones. section 9.7
