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Regression coefficient

As explained in Statistics Slam Dunk

A regression coefficient is a fitted parameter quantifying the change in a response associated with a one-unit change in a predictor while other predictors are held constant.

A regression coefficient measures how a predictor contributes to a predicted response within a fitted linear equation. Each coefficient multiplies one predictor while the other terms remain in the equation. section 5.7.3

In the NBA wins model, the coefficients show how predicted wins change with hustle statistics:

  • Deflections has a coefficient of 2.23, so each additional average deflection contributes 2.23 predicted wins. section 5.7.3
  • Loose balls recovered has a coefficient of 5.38, while contested shots has a negative coefficient of -0.24. section 5.7.3
  • Coefficients with p-values at or below 0.05 are treated as statistically significant influences on wins. section 5.7.3

Predicting Miami’s wins

Substituting Miami’s 2016–17 hustle statistics into the fitted equation produces 39 predicted wins, compared with 41 actual wins. Increasing loose balls recovered from 7.2 to 8.2 changes the rounded prediction to 44 wins.

How Statistics Slam Dunk covers it

How deep it goes
Interprets coefficients inside a fitted linear equation and pairs them with significance tests and concrete predictions.
Examples
Calculates Miami’s predicted wins from screen assists, deflections, loose balls, and contested-shot statistics.
What you can do after
Evaluate predictor influence and calculate fitted responses using coefficient estimates and observed predictor values.
How it connects
Connects regression coefficients with linear regression, predictors, intercepts, fitted values, and p-values.

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Related concepts

This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Statistics Slam Dunk. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.