Risk assessment evaluates the likelihood and potential impact of uncertain adverse events. In criminal justice, numerical scores can inform bail, incarceration, sentencing, alternative sentences, and parole decisions. section 10.2
Algorithmic recidivism prediction
A ProPublica analysis examined more than 7,000 Broward County arrests from 2013–2014. The scores predicted violent offenses unreliably: only 20 percent of those flagged actually committed violent crimes. section 10.2
The example shows why risk assessments require scrutiny:
- Predictive performance for broader offenses was only slightly better than chance. section 10.2
- The formula flagged Black defendants as future criminals at almost twice the rate of white defendants. section 10.2
