A confidence interval expresses uncertainty around a model’s estimate at a specified confidence level. In demand forecasting, it gives decision-makers a range rather than only a point prediction. section 8.5
Use confidence intervals as part of the model delivery contract:
- Require every model output to include a confidence interval. section 8.5
- Expose intervals in counterfactual what-if scenarios and prebuilt scenarios so users can judge decision uncertainty. section 8.5
