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Probability distribution

As explained in Experimentation for Engineers

A mathematical description of the possible values of a random quantity and their probabilities.

A probability distribution describes the possible values of a random quantity and how likely each value is. In A/B testing, each aggregate measurement is treated as one random draw from a distribution of potential measurements. section 2.3.1

Use the distribution to make an engineering decision:

  • Compare aggregate execution costs for ASDAQ and BYSE. section 2.3.1
  • Define delta as aggregate BYSE cost minus aggregate ASDAQ cost, then estimate its standard error. section 2.3.1
  • Convert delta to z = delta / se_delta and judge whether the result is unlikely under a zero-difference assumption. section 2.3.1

Exchange-routing experiment

With ten individual measurements per exchange, compute aggregate values, standard errors, delta, and se_delta using NumPy. A sufficiently extreme z score supports routing trades toward the exchange with lower measured execution cost, while retaining a stated risk of error. section 2.3.1

How Experimentation for Engineers covers it

How deep it goes
Explains distributions through aggregate measurements, standard error, z scores, and a 5% decision rule.
Examples
Uses ASDAQ and BYSE execution costs, aggregate measurements, NumPy calculations, and z-score threshold diagrams.
What it assumes
Assumes individual and aggregate measurements, then develops distributions through an exchange-cost comparison.
What you can do after
Evaluate whether measured differences justify routing trades to one exchange while controlling an explicit error probability.
How it connects
Connects distributions with A/B testing, expected value, standard error, hypothesis assumptions, and z scores.

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This explainer was generated by Manning's knowledge graph from the text of Experimentation for Engineers. The section links point to the parts of the book it draws on.